Some types of loss don’t show up on maps of disasters. It doesn’t look good in pictures. Something that doesn’t fall down doesn’t get a lot of attention on social media. It builds up slowly over time in the lives of kids who stopped going to school—not because they didn’t want to, but because of a flood, a drought that lasted too long, or a roof that caved in and wasn’t fixed.
A report from UNICEF that came out this month gives that loss a number for the first time. 130 million children in Eastern and Southern Africa have had trouble with their education because of climate change. This has cost school systems an estimated $1.3 billion in infrastructure damage. It is thought that those kids will lose up to $140 billion in income over the course of their lives. If things keep going the way they are, by 2050, 520 million children could be affected, and $380 billion in income could be lost. If someone talks about these numbers, they should stop.
It’s not just the size of the report that stands out. It’s all about the details. Between 2005 and 2024, floods and droughts in Zambia kept about 5 million students from going to school and damaged $60 million worth of infrastructure right away. From 2023 to 2024, Southern Africa was hit by a drought caused by El Niño. This left nearly 10 million people without reliable food, water, or electricity. As a result, schools had to cut back on hours, close for a while, or send kids home early with no clear return date. There’s something painfully real about that picture: a kid walking home from school that just ran out of the things it needed to work.
The effects are worst in places like Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia, and Zambia. In these places, education systems were already very tight before the climate shocks came. Poverty, inequality, and a lack of infrastructure made it hard for things to go wrong. When that kind of weak foundation is hit by a cyclone, it does more than just damage the building itself. It moves forward. Attendance goes down. The kids don’t come back. Especially girls are at a higher risk: in some places, extended school closures make getting married young more likely. Children who live in rural areas or come from low-income families are always the most at risk, and natural disasters can make choices that were already hard, like whether to stay in school or help support the family, impossible.
The difference between how big this crisis is and how little it’s talked about in climate finance talks is hard to miss. Less than 1% of money spent on climate change around the world goes to education. Given what’s at stake, that number seems almost impossible. According to UNICEF, investing one dollar in strong school buildings will pay off with up to thirteen dollars in future economic benefits. These aren’t just nice-to-have investments: stronger buildings, better water and sewage systems, training for teachers, and digital learning tools that can work even when there are problems. They’re the building blocks that keep kids in school when things outside are getting less stable.
Etleva Kadilli, who is in charge of UNICEF’s work in Eastern and Southern Africa, put it simply: children are paying the most for a crisis they had nothing to do with making happen. That’s not a fancy way of saying something. It’s the way things are built. The worst effects of global warming on education are being felt in the places that produce the least carbon emissions. There is a quiet injustice there that the numbers can’t fully show.
The report came out right before the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage’s board meeting this week in Livingstone, Zambia. Whether that body will treat children as active rights holders in climate finance decisions — rather than as statistics in a footnote — remains an open question. It’s possible that the political will exists. It’s also possible that, as has happened before, the urgency will be acknowledged and the funding will not follow. The children waiting for rebuilt classrooms don’t have the luxury of waiting to find out.
